15.2 Demography

1. Summary

What is demography? 

The demography is the study of the population's change. It can relate with births, deaths, migration, and aging because it affect the population's change. 

Why we should take a look at demography?

The any phenomena in history like world war one was a complex phenomena. Demographic indicators may explain that overpopulation and increase of the competition might cause this. So Demographic analysis can be a one of the good tool that can explain complex of sociological phenomena.

History of the demography

While there were census in the ancient China, Rome or Arab the modern census began in 18th century. The purpose of the census was for the taxation or political representation. 

Important stastics

  • Fertility, ability of females to produce future generation.

  • Fecundity is the potential reproductive capacity of a female.

  • crude birth rate: the annual number of live births per thousand people
  • total fertility rate: the average number of children that a woman would have over her lifetime if she were to experience the current age-specific fertility rates throughout her reproductive life.
  • crude death rate: the annual number of deaths per a thousand people
  • infant mortality rate: the average number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per thousand live births
  • life expectancy: the average number of years a person is expected to live

The demographic transition

It is a generalized model that try to explain the change in birth and death rates as a country develops economically. The model has five stages:

  1. High birth, High death
  2. Technology and economy's development cause the decline of death rate but still the birth rate is high.
  3. Birth rates and death rates decline together.
  4. Birth rates are low and death rates are low, slow rate of the growth in population.
  5. Unknown

The demographic transition model is a useful tool for understanding population change. However, it's important to remember that it's just a one of the various models. It doesn't always fit every country perfectly. So we need more study in the other research.

2. Discussion

As climate change is the important social issue right now many people try to figure out what is the reason of the climate change and how do we fix it. One of the answer is provided by Neo-Malthusian who suggest the overpopulation is the problem. Some of the people who call himself as an 'eco-fascist's are saying the similar thing to justify their racism. But their arguments are quite problematic. The population is indeed relate with environmental pollution but it is mainly and more related with the technology and socioeconomic factors. For example Top 100 companies are responsible for the 71% of carbon emission. So we need to think about how to change the economy not how to reduce it. 

3. Question

What changes in the population will occur in next 100 years?

What do u think about the urbanization?

Comments

  1. Lee WooyeonJune 22, 2023 at 12:49 AM

    Accurate predictions of population changes are difficult and can vary widely depending on a number of factors. However, given the current population trends and changing patterns, the population as a whole is expected to grow. The current world population is close to 8 billion, which is expected to continue to grow over the next 100 years. However, this growth rate may vary by region, and population decline may be expected in certain regions. In addition, the proportion of the aging population is expected to increase over the next 100 years. It is predicted that the proportion of the elderly population will increase in many countries and regions due to a decrease in fertility rates and an increase in life expectancy. This could require changes in social, economic, and social security systems.
    Urbanization is expected to continue over the next 100 years. The movement of the population to cities is likely to continue due to economic, social, transport and other benefits. This is expected to further increase the city's population density and create challenges and opportunities for urban environments and urban infrastructure.

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